The current issue of Barron’s includes an interesting interview with “Mr. Crude.” Arjun N. Murti, the leading energy analyst at Goldman Sachs, has a distinguished record. He was dead on with a prediction of a spike in oil prices. He made his call in 2004 when oil was $40/barrel. What does he see now?

Murti sees energy in the later stages of a “super spike,” in which prices rise to a point where demand drops off. In a note last month, he wrote that “the possibility of $150-to-$200-per-barrel oil seems increasingly likely over the next six to 24 months.”

His rationale is easy to understand. Supply is constrained. Demand is firm and rising. Oil prices in the forecast range would imply gasoline prices of $5.75/ gallon. At this point, one could expect a further reduction in demand.

Consumers and businesses alike need to ask what this possibility would mean for them.

In particular, businesses with exposure to higher fuel prices need to act quickly. Despite the trend, this problem has taken many by surprise. Some astute business leaders seem to be in denial. Normally, one would expect businesses to anticipate and to deal with important risks. Most have not yet done so.

There are some very good answers to the problem, including those that we offer.

It is certainly time to plan, and probably time to act.

When we work to help fleet managers and CFO’s, we always try to get the best possible pricing. While it is not our business to predict oil prices, we use every resource possible to find good entry points for those trying to hedge.

A month ago we highlighted an interview with T. Boone Pickens, suggesting that there might be a dip to $78/barrel before prices moved higher. Take a look at the chart and commentary below, taken from Greg J. Troccoli,’s excellent daily Opaleque Technical Research Briefing. It is worth a close look. (Click on image to enlarge).