A fellow blogger over at oilprice.com speculates that oil prices may be going as high as $100/barrel by the end of the year.

…the fundamental assumptions of the oil industry upside down, and that sharply higher oil prices were in the cards, probably $100/barrel by year end.

Major oil companies with deep pockets at risk were rushing to offload their existing offshore leases and partnerships in producing wells to avoid BP’s potential $30 billion hickey.

While we feel $100/barrel is particularly high, it’s nearly impossible to overstress the importance of potential new federal regulations on gulf oil production. Consumers and fleet managers beware.

The Associated Press reports that a market rally on crude oil has Americans paying more at the pump this week.

The national average for a gallon of regular unleaded rose 2.1 cents to $2.747 a gallon, according to AAA, Wright Express and Oil Price Information Service. Oil has traded above $82 for two straight days. It was around $77 a week ago.

Motorists are paying about 2.3 cents more than a month ago and 18.6 cents more than a year ago.

In addition to this rally, commercial oil reserves are steadily depleting. This will likely translate into higher gas prices at the pump throughout the summer. Naturally, this will add extra costs to fleet managers and the average consumer alike.

An International Energy Agency report released Monday notes that not only are OPEC countries nearing their lowest ever spare capacity, but developing nations are about to reach a kind of critical mass for oil demand. According to the Dallas Blog:

Demand for oil products, especially transportation fuels, is increasing rapidly. One can place blame on all those developing nations whose populations have been approaching the crucial $3,000 per capita GDP level – that pivotal moment when, as revealed by the IEA, “a middle class emerges, eager to purchase cars, fly in airplanes, install air-conditioners and, more generally, use energy consuming products. ‘People can’t blame a lack of refinery capacity, the IEA claims in refinery upgrades is proceeding apace; and doesn’t appear likely to be a difficulty in the near future. Yet overall, supply of the raw product – gas and oil – is having a harder and harder time to keep up with demand.

This is yet another indication that peak oil is upon us, ensuring higher fuel prices at the pump in the near future.

The Obama Administration’s 6 month offshore drilling moratorium was turned down again yesterday. An appeals court in New Orleans agreed with the lower court’s decision that the ban was an unwarranted strain on the local economy. But according to the Christian Science Monitor, this may not be the last we hear of it.

Legal and oil industry experts say oil companies are unlikely to resume exploratory drilling in the Gulf anytime soon, with or without a ban, with so much uncertainly regarding new federal safety and environmental regulations and possible congressional action affecting offshore drilling.

Questioned by Judge Smith, US Attorney Gray said he did not know when Secretary Salazar might issue the new moratorium. “The secretary is looking at a new decision based on new information,” Gray said. “It is not tied to this court’s decision.”

So far the disaster in the Gulf of Mexico hasn’t done much to drive up the cost of gas prices at the pump. With this in mind, we continue looking to the long term for hints of where future prices might go.

The Obama Administration will be pleading its case to the Fifth Circuit appeals court today at 3:00 PM local time. According to Reuters:

The drilling companies have the backing of key local leaders including Louisiana Republican Governor Bobby Jindal and Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu, who have argued the ban should be lifted in part because the drilling industry is worth $3 billion annually to the state’s economy.

The timing could not be much worse for the Gulf coast because the communities were just starting to get back on their feet after the devastating 2005 Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

But the Obama administration has fired back that the ban was essential given the catastrophe unfolding, as millions of gallons (liters) of oil spew from the well. The administration also said the suspension was narrowly tailored and the Interior Department’s expertise should have carried more weight.

This means, of course, that the ruling we covered on June 23 may not hold up. The obvious consequence here: higher fuel prices for the consumer and tougher profit margins for fleet managers.