Gasoline Use
Dr. Bill Connerly writes on his Businomics blog that we are using less gas. Here’s his chart (click to enlarge):
He points out that an important thing to know is that time lags are long.
We don’t change the quantity of gas we use easily. It takes a long time, with painful increases in price. So painful that we can no longer adjust to gas prices by spending less on other things.
The result is that we can have very big price hikes while demand seemingly doesn’t react. But give consumers a little time, and they start to react. The chart shows that. The price has probably reacted more in the short-run than it needs to in the long-run. Implication: prices likely to fall in the future.
When are we at greatest vulnerability of high gasoline prices helping to cause a recession? During that period when we are trying to get by without adjusting. We have less money to spend on non-gas goods and services because we’re trying to avoid changes to our processes and equipment. Once we bit the bullet and change, there’s less risk that the high gasoline prices will cause a recession.
Are we out of the woods with respect to a recession? Not yet.
Here are a couple of new articles about man vs. gasoline prices:
Man has to drive to work, but cancels 3,000-mi. car trip
High pump prices don’t stop Vermont drivers.
Get the point here?
