The US Department of Energy’s statistics wing has been forecasting dramatically lower levels of oil production every year since 2007. The significance? This international authority is suggesting real concerns in the supply and availability of oil in the next twenty years. Peak oil will soon be upon us.

Needless to say this would lead to skyrocketing oil prices, decreasing consumer demand for automobiles and raising costs for fleet managers and business owners. That is, of course, unless they have some sort of fuel protection program.

US Energy Sec, Dr. Steven Chu, doesn’t think so.

Wide swings in oil prices are difficult for industries to manage and the U.S. government is concerned about another price spike, Chu said.

Even $80 oil is making him nervous.

“We’ve repeatedly said what the world wants and needs is stable prices,” Chu said. “They have been inching up recently and it’s a little bit concerning.”

We’d be doing some hedging here instead of counting on Dr. Chu to do it for us.

29 years ago, then President, Jimmy Carter, told Americans the energy crisis was:

“a clear and present danger to our nation” and drew out a plan to address it.

Listen here to today’s story:

He was so ahead of his time.

Analysts see a new plateau in fuel prices, with possible spikes. CNBC ran a series suggesting that current prices did not include a premium for hurricanes or other disasters.

Some analysts project gasoline prices of $7 to $10/gallon.

Thoughtful economic observers like James Hamilton attempt to separate the secular trend from speculation.

Meanwhile, many businesses are operating without much information, even when fuel costs represent one of their biggest threats.

Auto companies, airlines, and fleet managers are all scrambling to evaluate the threat. Is this really a surprise? The demand for fuel from developing countries is clear, US demand has remained relatively inelastic (so far) and supplies are not responding. It is time for a plan.

It’s official. The Wall Street Journal (not some environmental tree-hugging pub) today has an article stating that producers could hit the ceiling on the number of barrels of oil that that can be pumped in a day by 2012. This would be roughly 100 million barrels, current production is something like 85 million barrels. Nice analysis and graphs on the Oil Drum.

Will this satisfy demand? Not a chance.

Not all see this as gloom, though:

Many leaders of the industry still dismiss the idea that there is reason to worry. “I am no subscriber to the theory that oil supplies have already peaked,” said BP’s chief executive, Tony Hayward, earlier this month in a speech in Houston.

Exxon Mobil Corp. Chief Executive Rex Tillerson has said that if companies had better access to the world’s oil reserves, production would increase and prices would go down. “Sufficient hydrocarbon resources exist to play their role in meeting this growing global demand, if industry is allowed to access them,” he said in a speech this month. If access were granted, Exxon Mobil believes the industry would be able to raise fuel production to meet demand in 2030 of 116 million barrels a day.

Calling Matthew Simmons!