Just as you probably suspected, there is more than one reason behind the rise in oil prices. There seems to be more than an ample supply in the US, but never mind that.

Consider:

Unrest in Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer.

Improving US economy

Positive economic signs in China, the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer, equals more fuel demand.

Are prices going up? Looks that way.

…major groups like IEA and EIA have projected strong demand for oil in the near future. According to Barclays oil prices were likely to rise to $80-$90 range. Quoting data from Joint Oil Data Initiative (JODI), which said that the Asian demand for oil was increasing by more than 2 million barrels per day, Barclays analysts Paul Horsnell said, “If Asian demand can grow at such rapid rates when prices are in the $70 to $80 range, then prices cannot stay in that range for much longer”.

OPEC is not changing output quotas at the moment. No help in sight there either.

Hard to know what to think! A NYT blog called ‘Green Inc.’ writes that a study by IHS Cambridge Energy Research
Associates released this week says oil supplies will continue growing for the next 20 years, and plateau for another 20 years after that.

The report, called “The Future of Global Oil Supplies: Understanding the Building Blocks,” shows how oil supplies will reach 115 million barrels a day around 2030, up from 92 million barrels today. They will remain at that level through 2050. (The report sets a lower peak level than in recent years, IHS said, because the recession had led companies to reduce their investments and demand is not expected to rise as high as previously thought.)

We don’t know. It the world flat after all?

Energy prices rose Monday - Oil settling over $73/barrel.

Heating Oil and Natural Gas took a jump, too. Supplies of all three are more than plentiful, so what can be blamed but the weak dollar. UGH!

Some think they certainly should. Fuel inventories should climb and consumption is down.

Gas stockpiles increased by 2.94 million barrels last week. Speculators, look out for the downside!

Demand dropped .9% last week.

Despite this oil prices up, equities up, dollar down.

Crude oil for November delivery rose $1.74, or 2.5 percent, to $71.69 a barrel so far this week on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest close since Sept. 18. Futures are up 61 percent this year.

Tom Kloza of OPIS answers questions you wish you could ask, and that media should be asking.

Where are gasoline prices headed for the rest of the year?

On a short term basis, they are clearly headed lower, particularly in some high priced states such as California, Alaska, Hawaii, New York, and Connecticut. There is enough current momentum to drive nationwide retail prices toward a $2.30-$2.40 gal range, perhaps by Columbus Day.

Prices do typically find a seasonal bottom in November, December, or January, and I suspect that bottom will be somewhere between $2.20-$2.30 gal.

But there’s an interesting caveat: within another 45 days, we will see 2009 street prices that are higher than the pump prices on the same days in 2008. That says much about the severity of the 2008 decline which was indeed unprecedented. Street prices dropped from $3.62 gal on October 1, 2008 to $2.18 gal by November 13.

2010 is hard to predict. Major banks predict $55 or $95 per barrel. Either one or both could be right.