Alltop, all the top stories
September 18, 2012

The Unexpected Sell-Off


That $5 drop on Monday is still a mystery

The move came at about 1:54 EDT according to the WSJ.

Traders were looking like deer in the headlights,” said Peter Donovan, a floor trader at Vantage Trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. “I called four different desks, and they all said, ‘we don’t know.’ “

HuffPo reports CME group said there were no ‘technical glitches’
and maybe the price of oil had just gotten too high.

Forbes suggests perhaps hedge fund unwind was responsible.

Sure has me stumped.

Filed under:Energy,Fuel Price Trends,Price Shocks | by Pump Girl @ 4:05 pm | 

September 11, 2012

Is Shale-Oil the Silver Bullet?


It’s a good thing. That’s for sure. Supply is looking fine domestically, but as far as the global market goes, shale-oil cannot prevent a spike in prices.

Per Bernstein Research:

The research firm argues that while that shale oil has indeed reinvigorated U.S. production, “the new supply is too small to flood the global market.”

Even by 2015, shale oil will reach just 3.2% of world oil supply; therefore, global supply-demand fundamentals are as critical as ever,” the note says. Meanwhile, with shale gas, “just the top four shales are responsible for one-quarter of the U.S. gas supply,” according to Bernstein.

Gas prices are still more sensitive to supply than price. The Oil Market and our relationship with it is ‘complicated.’

Filed under:Fuel cost,Fuel Price Trends,Gas price | by Pump Girl @ 5:28 pm | 

September 6, 2012

Gas Prices and the Presidential Campaign


Gas prices. Everyone talks about it, but there is really nothing they can do. Weather forecasters must empathize with Presidential candidates on this one.

Romney blamed Obama for gas prices doubling during his tenure. Democrats said something very similar during the 2008 campaign, calling for ‘windfall profits’ tax on oil companies for their so-called ‘gouging.’

Then prices dropped to under $2/gal. Nobody took credit (and really couldn’t). It was the depression and financial panic not the energy policy.

Under Obama domestic oil production has increased, but prices have gone up anyway. None of the old ‘Drill, Baby, Drill’ at the Republican convention this year. The number of rigs in operation has more than tripled.

Much as we might not like it, we just have to face it. The President can do just as much about gas prices, as the weather forecaster can do about the weather

Filed under:Fuel cost,Fuel Cost Control,Fuel Price Trends,Gas price | by Pump Girl @ 1:40 pm | 

September 5, 2012

Another Thing To Worry About


In a story in the ‘Telegraph’, a Citigroup report by Heidy Rehman is sounding alarm bells. — Saudi Arabia will cease to be an oil exporter by 2030.

Local consumption is rising dramatically. Now 50% of demand (majority of it for air conditioning).

This from Rehman

• Saudi Arabia Could be an Oil Importer by ~2030 — Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest oil producer (11.1mbpd) & exporter (7.7mbpd). It also consumes 25% of its production. Energy consumption per capita exceeds that of most industrial nations. Oil & its derivatives account for ~50% of Saudi’s electricity production, used mostly (>50%) for residential use. Peak power demand is growing by ~8%/yr. Our analysis shows that if nothing changes Saudi may have no available oil for export by 2030.

• It Already Consumes All Its Gas Production — Saudi Arabia produces 9.6bn ft3/day of natural gas. This is entirely consumed domestically. It is looking to raise gas production to 15.5bn ft3/day by 2015E, implying a 2011-15E CAGR of 12.7%. However, peak power demand is growing at almost 8% pa. We believe Saudi Arabia will need to find new sources to meet residential & industrial demand.

Read the whole article – good graphs.

Filed under:Energy,Fuel cost,Fuel Price Trends | by Pump Girl @ 4:03 pm |